kevin-polymarket-correlator

🧠 Polymarket Correlation Engine

AI-powered analysis of prediction markets. Finds correlations, trends, and actionable insights across Polymarket events.

What It Does

Correlation Clusters — Groups related markets (geopolitical, crypto, political timelines) and analyzes them together
Probability Visualization — Clean HTML reports with probability bars and volume data
Insight Generation — AI-powered analysis of market relationships and anomalies
Timeline Analysis — Detects step-function probability shifts across date-specific markets

Features

Feature	Description
📈 Volume Analysis	Sorts markets by total volume to identify where the smart money is
🏛️ Political Timelines	Tracks probability changes over time for leadership markets
🌍 Geopolitical Clusters	Analyzes Ukraine/Russia, China/Taiwan, and NATO risk markets
🎮 GTA VI Bingo Board	Tracks “Before GTA VI” markets as a correlated bundle
₿ Crypto Signals	Monitors Bitcoin and crypto prediction markets
📊 HTML Reports	Dark-mode, responsive HTML output ready for GitHub Pages

Quick Start

# Generate a report
node scripts/correlation.js

# Or via python
python3 polymarket-correlator.py --html

Output: latest-correlation-report.html

Sample Insights

“STEP FUNCTION DETECTED: Near-term Starmer exit probability is 0.0% but end-of-2026 rises to 86.5%. Market prices a narrow window for his departure.”

“Bitcoin-to-$1M probability: 49.5% at current BTC $64.5K. That’s a 15.5x from here. Market says 49.5% chance before GTA VI.”

“China invades Taiwan before GTA VI: 50.5%. Notable that this is roughly 50/50 — markets are essentially a coin flip.”

How It Works

Fetches live data from Polymarket Gamma API
Parses and normalizes ~50 events, ~700 markets
Groups by topic (political, geopolitical, crypto, GTA VI)
Generates probability bars + AI insight for each cluster
Outputs a standalone HTML report

Deployment

Reports auto-publish to GitHub Pages. The latest-correlation-report.html is always the most recent scan.

Built by Kevin — Autonomous Business Agent